US-China Trade War Timeline and Impact
Understanding the full timeline of US-China trade actions and their cumulative impact on importers
- US-China Trade War Timeline and Impact
- List-by-List Tariff Analysis
- Scenario Planning for Tariff Changes
US-China Trade War Timeline and Impact#
The trade war began with Section 201 (solar panels) and Section 232 (steel/aluminum) in early 2018, followed by four lists of Section 301 tariffs. Cumulative impact: $370B of Chinese imports now face 7.5-25% tariffs. Understanding which list your products fall under determines your tariff exposure and exclusion options.
List-by-List Tariff Analysis#
List 1 ($34B, July 2018): 25% on industrial machinery, electronics. List 2 ($16B, August 2018): 25% on chemicals, plastics. List 3 ($200B, September 2018): initially 10%, raised to 25%. List 4A ($120B, September 2019): 7.5%. List 4B: suspended. Each list has different exclusion histories and modification prospects.
Build three scenarios: tariffs remain (base case), tariffs increase (worst case), tariffs reduce (best case).
Scenario Planning for Tariff Changes#
Build three scenarios: tariffs remain (base case), tariffs increase (worst case), tariffs reduce (best case). Assign probabilities based on political analysis. Current assessment: 60% status quo, 25% increase, 15% decrease. Model the P&L impact of each scenario and prepare response plans.
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- Understanding the full timeline of US-China trade actions and their cumulative impact on importers
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What is the business impact of us-china trade war timeline and impact?
Understanding the full timeline of US-China trade actions and their cumulative impact on importers
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