US-China TariffsGlobal Trade Intelligence

US-China Trade War Timeline and Impact

26 October 2025·Updated May 2026·7 min read·GuideIntermediate
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In this article
  1. US-China Trade War Timeline and Impact
  2. List-by-List Tariff Analysis
  3. Scenario Planning for Tariff Changes
Key Takeaways

Understanding the full timeline of US-China trade actions and their cumulative impact on importers

  • US-China Trade War Timeline and Impact
  • List-by-List Tariff Analysis
  • Scenario Planning for Tariff Changes

US-China Trade War Timeline and Impact#

The trade war began with Section 201 (solar panels) and Section 232 (steel/aluminum) in early 2018, followed by four lists of Section 301 tariffs. Cumulative impact: $370B of Chinese imports now face 7.5-25% tariffs. Understanding which list your products fall under determines your tariff exposure and exclusion options.

List-by-List Tariff Analysis#

List 1 ($34B, July 2018): 25% on industrial machinery, electronics. List 2 ($16B, August 2018): 25% on chemicals, plastics. List 3 ($200B, September 2018): initially 10%, raised to 25%. List 4A ($120B, September 2019): 7.5%. List 4B: suspended. Each list has different exclusion histories and modification prospects.

💡 Key Insight

Build three scenarios: tariffs remain (base case), tariffs increase (worst case), tariffs reduce (best case).

Scenario Planning for Tariff Changes#

Build three scenarios: tariffs remain (base case), tariffs increase (worst case), tariffs reduce (best case). Assign probabilities based on political analysis. Current assessment: 60% status quo, 25% increase, 15% decrease. Model the P&L impact of each scenario and prepare response plans.

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📊 By The Numbers
$37025%$34$16$200
Key Takeaways
  • Understanding the full timeline of US-China trade actions and their cumulative impact on importers

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Understanding the full timeline of US-China trade actions and their cumulative impact on importers

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