Reading the Runway Scenario Table (4 Scenarios)
Understand the four scenarios in the AskBiz Cash Runway Scenario Table — base, optimistic, pessimistic, and break-even — and how to use them for planning.
Key Takeaways
- The Base scenario is your current actual runway; the other three model what-if adjustments.
- The Optimistic scenario models reduced burn; Pessimistic models increased burn; Break-Even models zero net burn.
- Using all four scenarios together gives you a realistic range rather than a single-point forecast.
Opening the Scenario Table
Step 1: Navigate to the /intelligence page in AskBiz. Step 2: Click the Cash Runway card to expand the runway drill-down panel. Step 3: Scroll down past the formula breakdown section to find the 4-Scenario Table. The table has four rows — one per scenario — and columns showing the scenario name, the assumed daily burn for that scenario, and the resulting runway in months.
The Base Scenario
The Base scenario uses your actual current daily burn and cash balance with no adjustments. The runway figure in this row matches exactly what the Cash Runway card displays. This is your starting point for all comparisons. If the Base scenario shows 4 months of runway, you know you have 4 months to either raise more capital, grow revenue, or reduce costs before cash runs out. The Base row is always highlighted differently from the others to indicate it reflects real current data rather than a model.
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Start for free →The Optimistic Scenario
The Optimistic scenario models a reduction in daily burn — typically 15 to 20 percent below base, representing achievable cost cuts or a moderate revenue increase. The purpose of this scenario is to show you the runway upside if you successfully execute cost reductions. For example, if your Base runway is 4 months and the Optimistic scenario shows 5.2 months, you know that a 15 percent cost reduction adds roughly 1.2 months of runway. Use this row to set a concrete target: if 5.2 months crosses a threshold you care about (for example, enough time to close a funding round), the Optimistic scenario defines your required cost action.
The Pessimistic Scenario
The Pessimistic scenario models an increase in daily burn — typically 15 to 20 percent above base, representing unexpected costs or revenue decline. This row answers the question: what is the worst plausible outcome if things go slightly wrong? For example, if the Pessimistic scenario shows 3.1 months and your next fundraising round is expected to close in 3.5 months, you have a timing risk. In that case, building a cash buffer or accelerating revenue becomes urgent rather than optional. The Pessimistic row is the most important row for risk management.
The Break-Even Scenario
The Break-Even scenario models the runway when daily net burn is exactly zero — meaning daily revenue equals daily gross burn. When net burn is zero, no cash is being consumed, so runway is effectively infinite (or very long). This row shows the minimum revenue level at which your cash situation stabilises. Step 1: Note the daily burn figure in the Break-Even row. Step 2: If it equals your gross burn, that is the daily revenue required to break even. Step 3: Compare this to your current daily revenue to understand the gap. Step 4: Use the Ask AI button below the scenario table to ask how to close this gap within a specific timeframe.